India's top-three: A layered strike-rate puzzle that needs fixing

It was about five series away from a home World Cup that India chanced upon a newcomer to pair alongside Smriti Mandhana at the top of the order, and struck gold. Pratika Rawal made an instant impact in the first month as an international cricketer. Only a series prior to that, in Australia, the team had settled on their new one-down batter.

On her comeback to the national side, Harleen Deol landed the crucial role of No. 3 - a position that had seen frequent chopping, changing and u-turns since Mithali Raj's retirement at the start of the World Cup cycle. With captain Harmanpreet Kaur slotting in at No. 4 and Jemimah Rodrigues preferred at No. 5, India's settled top-order marked a clear shift from last year's T20 World Cup where experimentation clouded their batting approach.

The home series against West Indies and Ireland - both of whom later failed to qualify for the World Cup - allowed Rawal and Deol to effortlessly find their rhythm. Each notched up their maiden ODI century among a string of consistent contributions. Combined with the runs from the trio of experienced batters around them, India's top-five started to look just as formidable on scorecards as it did on paper.

The two new inclusions had seamlessly blended in, in a World Cup year, but there was a significant caveat. For both, their most impressive numbers had come in conditions that were familiar and against oppositions that were forgiving.

And then came the tougher assignments - England in England, and reigning champions Australia at home - in the final stretch of preparation. The cracks in this newly-minted top-order, which had previously been masked by the sheer volume of runs, now began to show.

The numbers of the successful opening partnership remain striking. Rawal and Mandhana have gone at a run-rate of 6.05 in 19 ODIs together. In fact, of the 56 pairs that have added 1000-plus partnership runs in WODIs for any wicket till date, India's newest opening pair is staggeringly the only one to have gone at over run-a-ball.

But the aggression noticeably began to taper off every time Mandhana was the first casualty. The scoring rate of the Rawal-Deol pair slows down to just 4.31. In contrast, when Rawal falls first, interestingly enough the Mandhana-Deol pairing strikes at 6.39 RPO together with the southpaw well set and accelerating even through the middle-overs against spin. In the same timeframe, whenever Mandhana outlasted both her opening partner and the no. 3 to bat alongside captain Harmanpreet Kaur, their partnership run-rate spikes to a staggering 7.82 that has more often than not had a game-changing effect.

India's second-wicket

*since Rawal's debut

Sample a few games from the 11 times Rawal and Deol have had to rebuild forward. In Southampton, when Mandhana's departure in the eighth over ended the partnership that was going at 6 RPO, the second-wicket pair added 46 runs in 10 overs at 4.6 before the middle-order came to the rescue in the chase. In the ODI series opener against Australia last month, such stagnation led to a sub-par score. While the openers had added 114 in 21.3 overs at 5.3 RPO; Deol and Rawal went into their shell, adding just another 28 off 53 balls at 3.16. India never got the push they needed after that solid a platform, and Australia gunned down the target of 282 with 8 wickets and 35 balls to spare. Against Pakistan in Colombo last week, the second-wicket pair added 19 off 35 at 3.25 RPO with 26 of those deliveries yielding no run.

While Mandhana's recent consistency in batting deep into the innings has been impressive, expecting her to always be India's well-set anchor-cum-aggressor is a luxury confined to wishful thinking. This overdependence started to become starkly evident whenever she departed early, for the slowdown that ensued stemmed from a combination of unproductive batting tendencies of the two batters on her either side.

Deol's safety-first approach

The high dot-ball consumption of India's top-order is a criticism even in-form Mandhana isn't exempt from. But her tendency to consistently make up for it in big shots makes it pardonable - something that isn't always guaranteed with the other two. A prerequisite for a good No. 3 batter is patience and pressure-absorption, but Deol's slow-burn more often than not proves counterproductive as it ends up transferring more pressure onto the middle-order to follow when she fails to convert her watchful starts. India pack not just her but three slow-starters in between the explosive Mandhana and the proactive Rodrigues, making it a traffic jam if those early dots aren't compensated for.

As recently as in the second ODI against Australia at home, Deol replaced Rawal in the middle after a solid 70-run stand that came at better than run-a-ball only to make 4 off the first dozen deliveries she played before Mandhana decided to switch gears. The unspoken pressure translated into a communication breakdown and resulted in Deol's run-out after a tedious 10 off 24.

Only seven times in the 22 innings since comeback has Harleen managed to last more than 10 overs in the middle - a period where her strike-rate turns green. As many as 15 times - that's twice in every three innings - her inability to shift gears swiftly after seeing herself in has stalled momentum.

Deol's innings progression since India comeback

Rawal's struggles against spin

Despite a promising start to her career, Rawal has shown a vulnerability against quality spin in the middle-overs, often allowing them to dictate the tempo. Her cautious approach not just cuts off the chance at acceleration but also hampers strike-rotation - allowing oppositions to keep India in check.

A high dot-ball percentage combined with lower boundary percentage underscores her weakness against the slower bowlers. In a concerning trend against left-arm spin in particular, her boundary percentage drops further to 5.76 while the strike-rate plummets to 72.43. She has lost her wicket to left-arm spinners eight times in 19 games, including both times in the ongoing World Cup.

Against Sri Lanka, it was the second ball she faced from Ranaweera in trying to make up for the lack of strike-rotation earlier. Against Pakistan, she started briskly off pace but in trying to replicate the same against Sadia Iqbal, the opener fell for 31 off 37 eventually.

Twice already in the tournament, Mandhana's early departure meant Deol's slow-starting patterns combined with Rawal's tentativeness against spin to create a bottle-neck in run-flow. For any opposition captain, this presents an obvious matchup tactic to stifle India. Sri Lanka did it by deploying Inoka Ranaweera and Sugandhika Kumari, and Pakistan through Sadia Iqbal and Nashra Sandhu. On both occasions, collapses were similar: India slipped to 124/6 in Guwahati and 159/5 in Colombo, before multi-utility players lower down the order did the heavlifting to bail them out. Against relatively weaker opponents, it resulted in fairly comfortable wins to even propel India to the top of the table.

But now, the honeymoon phase is over for Deol and Rawal, and India in this home World Cup. In Vizag, India's campaign enters the daunting stretch with four consecutive games against teams which ended their 2022 World Cup hopes, and it's time to take accountability and align expectations with execution. If the management is keen on backing what it deems is a settled top-five, fixes must be found in tactical and/or technical tweaks. Both of them were rewarded with the World Cup berth ahead of an X-factor player like Shafali Verma on account of their consistent showing. However, consistency and intent need not be mutually exclusive. At the top of the order, India needs both.

With stats inputs from Roshan Gede